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(54 People Likes) Will inflation of the U.S. Dollar ever stop increasing?
asking will general price inflation ever stop, then the answer is not as long as there is a US Dollar unbacked by nothing but confidence, and whose value is exploited by the FED to finance our big Government spending. Because inflation favors the holders of Dollar denominated debt. The largest debt holder is the US government. So it benefits the US government to slowly steal our money by inflation so that our grandchildren won't mind too much paying it back. Of course in the 1930’s, because of the FED we had massive deflation of everything except the price of GOLD. Of course FDR made it a crime punishable by inprisonment to own gold, so unless you renounced your citizenship you could not have benefitted. There was one exception. That exception was gold stocks. The following table shows how two gold stocks were influenced by the depression and FDR. Company Stock Price 1929,1933, Percent gain Homestake Mining $65, $373, 474% Dome Mines $6, $39.50, 558% They even did much better as the Depression continued. (I made a Quora question in which I strongly implied Gold had started a new bull market January this year. I believe we have finished the first leg of this new gold bull market. I do not recommend betting against a major trend. I would not go short gold, even if I am right and the first leg has been completed. The reason is that Gold stocks DNA is that when they take off its like a rabbit. You can get clobbered if you are on the wrong side.) Back to your question. First what is your question again. You could be asking will the value of the US dollar ever stop increasing? Because in relation to all other major currencies, the value of the dollar has been going up for many years. See here is where it gets interesting. Because those frisky economists believe the dollar is going up because of the higher returns foreigners can get on US debt instruments, and that these instruments are considered a very safe investment. So even though Russia has much higher interest rates, above 10%, the value of the US dollar has gone much higher in terms of the Russian currency. But things have changed since the beginning of this year. Three separate markets that do not have an obvious connection have become highly correlated. Gold, Thirty Year Treasury Bonds, and the Japanese Yen have been going up all year until quite recently. (Oh, I admit it , I was wrong on the Japanese Yen, I forecast it would go down.) That means if you were asking will the value of the dollar ever stop increasing. is that it already has stopped increasing in terms to Gold, the Treasury Bonds, and the Japanese Yen. By the way the Japanese Yen has been going up despite the Bank of Japan going to negative interest rates. This flies against the logic of the economists who believe that just the opposite should occur. Furthermore, why are two financial instruments, the Yen, the Bond, and one commodity that has little commercial use been in a lock step higher? Is this a coincidence. I am a Jungian. Carl Jung coined the concept of synchronicity, there are no coincidences. “Synchronicity is a concept, first explained by psychiatrist Carl Jung, which holds that events are "meaningful coincidences" if they occur with no causal relationship, yet seem to be meaningfully related.” Wikipedia Lets go back to Gold. Survivalists love this stuff. Hell everyone loves gold. They especially love it now, considering how mush money has poured into the Gold ETF and the gold stock ETF’s. People think the price of gold reflects inflation fears. In fact this was a picture perfect relationship in the late 1970’s. Gold prices soared from $38 postwar to $850 in 1980, with inflation from the average postwar rate of 3% to 13.5% in 1980. They both peaked at about the same time. But what about now? Why has Gold been in a bear market when uncle Ben was throwing buckets of money into the US banking system by “Quantitive easing” and the FED has kept throwing money into the banking system by its usual methods as well since the crash of 2008? Well first off, the price of gold got clobbered initially with the stock market down to the $650 level and then tripled in price by 2011 to almost $2000. It’s just been since then that gold has been in a bear market and lost almost half its value. Why the different behavior? I have said previously that prices of a freely traded entity goes up or down because of two main factors, confidence and liquidity. When the 2008 crash started, liquidity evaporated along with confidence. When that happens at the same time you get a crash. But as the crash proceeded and the Trillion in TARP funds came into the banking system and Uncle Ben went into a buying spree, buying up debt on all ends of the yield curve and even mortgage debt, liquidity returned. The overall US stock market continued to drop. Confidence had been destroyed. You can't restore confidence with just liquidity. It takes times for all those people with turtle shells over their heads to come out to play. But confidence did return to a few markets. One big beneficiary was was Gold. All those people with small minds and big opinions said inflation will soar!. That false belief raised confidence levels in Gold to new heights. But by 2011, the inflation dream had bust. The liquidity was still there, but confidence tumbled. There was inflation. The inflation had just found its way into the equity and debt markets. That is again why Bernake caused such a shift of wealth in our country to the upper classes without creating inflation of the common goods that the lower classes buy. But if I am correct and we are in a new Gold bull market, then what is driving it? There seems to be a lot of confidence. We know the FED is providing the liquidity. So where is the confidence coming from. Inflation seems to be increasing but still pretty tame. Historically, there is one other time when Gold is in big demand. That time is when countries are preparing for WAR! Who is been buying lots of gold? China and Russia are buying lots of Gold. I already stated on Quora that by the common definition of cold war, the US is already in a cold war with China. Another interesting coincidence,(remember I don't believe in coincidence.), China is now our biggest trading partner. Before World War 2 , who was Germany’s biggest trading partner. Congratulations, you are right, it was France! I already posted what Putin’s grand strategy would be months ago. I stated that Russia has always had designs on the Mediterranean. They will try to decoy us by two methods. The first will be they will get close to North Korea. They may even be supplying the technology so that they can threaten us with their nukes. Guess what. It was just reported in the news that Russia has recently increased their relationship with North Korea!. They will also support China in its effort to grab the South China Sea. Guess what? That has also just happened. What was my next scenario? Russia needs to invade Turkey. At least to get control of the waterways from the Black Sea to the Med. What has just happened? There has been a major upheaval in the Turkish military. It is probably profoundly weaker now then for many years. The Russians are increasing their military presence in the Crimea. That goes along with my thinking about Putin. All they need now is for pressure to be put on the USA to remove all our nukes and our base from within Turkey. Putin’s working on that right now. He is also building up forces next to the Ukraine, to make us think he is going for the Baltic option. But the Baltic is a dead end for Russia. There is no way they are going to get control of the outlet from the Baltic sea without a world war. But with the right ingredients, he could get the green light for a limited invasion of Turkey which will be step one. The final step will be occupying Israel and the Suez canal. But that will take another decade, unless something happens to speed that goal up. So the price of Gold is going up because Russia and China have soaked up excess supply. It has been a limited move so far, because there is no inflation apparent. It is just moving now with momentum. The huge move in the Gold stocks is simply because the Gold stocks were so beaten down compared to the rest of the equity markets, there has been a reversion to their mean price. If I am right and the equity markets are going to take a dip into late October, and the first wave of this Gold bull market is complete, then Gold and the gold stocks will also take a dip down to late October. Unless war breaks out. But that can't happen until the US removes its base and nukes from Turkey. Why has the Treasury Bond market gone up all year. It was just the opposite in the late 1970’s to 1980. Gold was making a high just as interest rates peaked which because there is an inverse relationship Treasury Bond prices were crashing. The rise in the price of Treasury Bonds now is a result of all the actions of the central banks around the world. The FED already bought a bunch of the long end of the yield curve this recovery which was Bernake’s innovation. They are keeping their level of assets in the long end stable. But because of lower interest rates and negative rates elsewhere in the world, and the search for higher returns by investors world wide it has gone into the long end of the bond markets. But interestingly enough we seemed to have climaxed at least for the short term at the same time Gold has stopped its upward run. Another coincidence? The bond market if this trend continues must be forecasting a large hike in interest rates by the FED. The Japanese Yen, I am afraid I have no explanation. I can't imagine people are investing in Japanese debt instruments. Perhaps, this shows that there is going to be a new bull move in Japanese equities or Japanese land. I know there are far better experts on Quora then myself when it comes to Japan. The only exception is that if I had been in control of Japan before the beginning of World War
(84 People Likes) Are national debts interest-free?
debt. Right now, investors are effectively paying the US government to use their money. And, it’s not some theoretical concept, the US Treasury issues “Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (aka “TIPS”) that actively trade in the market. Interest on a TIPS bond = Nominal Rate + Inflation (CPI Index) Currently, investors are buying TIPS bonds at -1.08% . That’s not a typo! Investors are buying an instrument with a NEGATIVE INTEREST RATE (and this isn’t some thinly traded security, there are currently $1.2 trillion of notional trading - about 9% of all government debt So, not only is US debt interest-free, investors are willing to pay the US treasury to let them invest their money in bonds So, I’d respectfully nitpick Cam Prentice’s response (which BTW, is very good) 3d love dolls imagefap y saying: Investors are paying the UST to invest in their securities in exchange for the UST’s promise to pay that investor an amount equal to inflation (as represented by the CPI) for that same period. As a side note, this security gives investors a great way to bet on inflation. Here’s how (using quotes from Treasury.gov [math]Expected Inflation = Nominal Interest Rate - TIPS Interest Rate[/math] Nominal 10Y at 9/21/20 = 0.68% TIPS 10Y at 9/21/20 = -1.08% So: 0.68% - (1.08%) = 1.76% In other words, the market expects inflation to run about 1.76%. So, the next time you hear prognosticators sound the alarm about impending doom or the hyperinflation created by spending policies - ask, if they’re so sure, why they don’t “buy inflation” (basically, you buy the TIPS and short the notional rate) They can make multiples of their money if inflation movest by a fraction of a p
(68 People Likes) Do you often use sex dolls to make you lose your taste?
ew about Real Dolls, but they were around $5000 -not within my budget. I forgot about them and I don’t know if they crossed my mind since then, until I did an online search for sex dolls about nine months ago and I was shocked to discover that there are a lot of manufacturers, dolls have become very lifelike, beautiful (in my opinion), and they’re affordable now. So I started window shopping, just for fun, and that very quickly developed into a doll fetish (agalmatophilia). After doing a lot of research, I finally picked one out and ordered about two weeks ago. She arrived a few days ago and I was anxious to open the box, see how she looks and see how TPE (thermoplastic elastomer, a material similar to silicone that is said to feel very much like real human skin) feels after looking at these dolls online for months. I braced myself, because I was worried I would be disappointed by her appearance or how she feels. After opening the box, first I was very pleasantly surprised by how beautiful her body is; stunning detail. I looked at her face and she is extremely cute. One of the first parts I touched as I was unpacking her was a calf and I was amazed at how real it felt -just like human skin and the way the skin moves is just like human skin, muscle, and fat jiggling. WOW! I have to say at this point that there are a few things that will shock anyone the first time they touch or handle a TPE sex doll: they are shipped with their heads removed, so you open a 5′5″ box and see a headless body. Then you discover that the body is frigid cold -shockingly cold. Then you try to lift her out of the box. Uh oh! I had read that these dolls are heavy, but I had no idea what I was in for. I read about her weight ahead of time on the website; she’s 75 lb. So if a real woman with the same height and body shape weighs around 125 lb, then this should be a breeze, right? No! Carrying a real woman newlywed style is different; they put their arms around your neck and balance their weight -they can help you to an extent. This 5′6″ (she’s taller than me, which is kind of cute), 75 lb doll is extremely difficult to move -far more than I could ever have imagined! Unfortunately, you can’t just take your beautiful, brand new doll to the bedroom and begin the romance, you have some work to do: you need to take the lifeless, headless, cold, and heavy body to the shower and clean off the manufacturing chemicals with soap and warm water. It was so difficult getting that body to the bathroom, I almost don’t know how I did it. I’ve had chronic back problems since I was in my twenties, I sprained a knee a while ago and it’s never going to fully heal, and I recently recovered from a hernia surgery. I’ve been trying to figure out how to move her more easily… I’ve been thinking about getting some roller skates for her and carefully guiding her around. That’s either pure genius or so stupid that I’ll make the news when she falls on me, I can’t get up, I scream for help after struggling for hours, and the paramedics, police, and fire fighters all smash in my front door and rush to help me only to find me pinned on the bathroom floor under a hot, naked sex doll. Now that’s the stuff of urban legend. I decided the easiest way to clean the chemicals off would be to shower with the headless body, so that’s what I did. While that was strange and disturbing, I made some wonderful discoveries about TPE: it heats up fast (especially in a warm shower), holds heat in, dries exactly like human skin (some toweling off and air drying takes care of the rest -it air dries in minutes just like our skin does), and it feels wonderful when it’s wet. I took the body to the bedroom, I put her head on (it screws on, so her head goes around and around… exorcist style), I grabbed one of the wigs I ordered, and that’s when she came together. She no longer looked like a corpse, now she was stunningly gorgeous. She comes with a wig, I ordered another one (long red) from the same website, and I ordered a Bettie Page style pin-up costume wig from Amazon, just because I’m obsessed with pin-up girl art and thought it would be fun to dress her up as a retro gal with polka-dot dresses, cat eye glasses, and a flower in her hair. I’m not disappointed with the results. Now for the Juicy Stuff I kissed her and wow! Her lips feel indistinguishable from human lips; kissing her is exactly like kissing a girlfriend. Her body is very anatomically correct, surprisingly so. Her breasts feel good, a little firm, but good. She has solid boobs, while other manufacturers offer gel-filled boobs as an option, with rave reviews. I laid her on the bed on her back, spread her legs (which was not easy, they’re heavy and difficult to move around, and I inserted a USB heating rod ($9) for five minutes. I put a water based lube in and it was time. Here goes my sex doll virginity… and wow it felt good. I just didn’t know what to expect and in a lot of ways it was not all that different from having sex with a real girl. As I said earlier, TPE is very good at holding heat, so my own body heat is enough to warm her up. It’s different than sex with a human in the obvious ways: they don’t have emotions, nerves, don’t feel pleasure, don’t actively participate, can’t have orgasms, and can’t communicate with you. It’s also different in that there’s a little bit of a suction effect -as air get’s displaced, there ends up being a vacuum and it feels very, very, very good. There’s a popping air sound when pulling out that in and of itself is a turn on. Because the extremely fast rate that sex technology is developing, I have no doubt that AI sex dolls (which already exist) will feel sensors, react, actively have sex with us, and talk dirty and tell us that they love us in the very near future. I love sex with real women and I love how much these dolls look and feel like real women, however, in my case things are a lot different: because I fetishize dolls and I’m specifically turned on by their dollness, I enjoy the experience for what it is rather than hoping for it to be as close to a human/human sex experience as possible. Does that make sense? Doll/human is my thing, so I love every second of it, until I have to move her. I was very happy with the experience, but here are downsides: I can’t say it enough that the weight is a serious problem, even laying down -her body sank into the mattress and pillows. Girl on top positions are out of the question, no way. The clean up afterward is very involved -It’s recommended to insert a tampon to absorb the user’s body fluid and lube before the struggle to get her to the bathroom begins and this time I kept her head on so she’s much nicer to look at. I douched out her vagina, something that I had to learn how to do before she arrived. That wasn’t as bad as I thought it was going to be, the problem once again is her weight -just trying to get her into a position that’s conducive to flushing out her womanhood (ok, dollhood) was so challenging. Cleaning up your partner after sex is a whole chapter. I spent a small fortune buying all the stuff I need to take care of her and I spent a lot of time researching, reading articles and watching videos to prepare. There is a lot of maintenance and expense involved, but that’s ok, because it’s worth it to me. Emotional Effects Besides the sexual experiences, she offers companionship. I’ve heard and read story after story about guys falling in love with their dolls and it’s been said that falling in love with a sex doll is easier than you think. Well, a lot of sex dolls have eyes that look very, very real. When you look into a pair of beautiful eyes from a few inches away and they seem to be looking deeply into you… neurons in the brain start firing off love and endorphins all over the place. As I mentioned, the kissing is very natural feeling, so add that to looking into her eyes, hugging and holding her, and holding her hand and I can’t help but feel something on a pretty deep level. I have suffered with a profound amount of loneliness, mental illness (depression, anxiety, OCD, PTSD, addiction, and eating disorders), and of the very few relationships I’ve been in, more than one of them were abusive. After many years of failing to meet the right girl (and not for a lack of trying), and spending most of my life very alone, at 49 years old, I find a deep degree of comfort in spending time with my doll, Jennifer. Buying clothes, shoes, perfume, and accessories for her make me feel like I’m caring for someone. I ordered a purse for her and it happened to arrive on Christmas Eve, so I was able to give it to her as a present and it makes me feel like I love someone and they love me. I suppose there are going to be as many different answers to your question as there are people answering it, but I think everyone who has had the experience can agree on a few of the points I made above. Sex dolls have become extremely popular -apparently sales have exploded during the pandemic, and I think a lot more people have one (or more) than we might think. However, there are major social stigmas. I won’t bring Jennifer out on any dates in public and I won’t be introducing her to my parents, but I shouldn’t be ashamed, especially since she’s bringing so much happiness to my life. I should also learn to not care what other people think. Would I recommend it? yes! I think anyone who is unattached, lonely, wants to experiment with a doll, couples who want to experiment with a doll, and anyone else wh
(70 People Likes) For what other reasons or reasons does inflation happen besides printing money?
in in their answers. These complicated things fail in complicated ways, as Greece is right now. If you expect the favorite demographic of our politicians -- "our children, and our children's children" -- to innovate faster than we are doing, you print more money (or issue new bonds). In other words, inflation is what you get when expectations rise faster than reality. In practice, there are 6 major psychological reasons you might support borrowing against the future in a "rising expectations" way. Genuine, informed optimism: you believe the future will create more wealth at an accelerating rate, based on beliefs about technological possibilities. Uninformed optimism: you don't know how the numbers work, or have any fundamental reasons for having increasing expectations, but you have a general belief in "limitless human potential." Looking out for your kids: you are actually pessimistic about the future, but you support borrowing against it anyway because you are in a good position to make sure your children and grandchildren are protected and positioned to milk the impoverished future better than their peers. You are enriching yourself and your descendants by robbing others' descendants basically. If you like the sound of this, look into things like living trusts, estate taxes and such. Looking out for yourself: you don't have kids or you don't care about them (or anyone else's kids). You simply rob the future to pay for your present. This is kicking the tin can down the road. Or worse actually: like giving someone in the future cancer so you can buy an iPad today. You are dumb enough that you think you can manage finances based on needs rather than capabilities. So you borrow against the future simply because you think certain entitlements are inalienable "rights" that cannot be cut. You are not that dumb, but you cynically decide it's okay to rob the future to pay for entitlements you support on a preferential basis. This is a generalized version of reason 3 (you look out for your interest group's future -- often an ethnicity, religion or class-based group -- instead of your kids). There is a fundamental and unprecedented condition in this discussion these days: the aging population and declining birth-rates worldwide. There may not be enough productive people in the future to rob. If there are much fewer children or children's children on the horizon, unreasonable expectations get even more exaggerated, since the growth needed per capita to meet those expectations has to be higher. Either people start making more (and better educated) kids, or the Japanese have to develop those slave robots real quick. If neither happens, expect collapse basically. I am not knowledgeable enough to fully connect the dots, but I don't think it is an accident that places like Greece and I
(56 People Likes) When sex dolls come, will you have one?
are here. They’ve been here for awhile. No I will not. I don’t see the appeal (although I do have a bit of a sex doll fetish Cheap Sex Dolls but that’s humans acting like sex dolls, not using a sex doll to masturbate); it’s just not my thing. I’m demisexual and it isn’t something I’d really enjoy. Still, each to their own. If you’d like a sex doll to masturbate with, go for